← Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
Water Crux MageTier 1
at Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-4-3
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.9%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1302
· range 1212–1393
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1183
Q3 1368
1616
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.8% | -20.4 |
| Fire Exia | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
